Trump will NOT be the party choice

Staff Columnist

It’s over when it ends,

And not a day too soon.

The message polling sends

Is Trump will lead to ruin.


This column is going to irritate people, but sometimes events make the future foreseeable, no matter how repugnant to professional politicians.

With less than three months to go before the Republican National Convention in July, it may seem the height of folly for a columnist to predict the outcome, but after the result in Wisconsin’s primary this week, some factors are clear.

It is no longer possible for Donald Trump to secure the 1,237 majority of delegates needed to effect a first ballot triumph.

His misstatements prior to Wisconsin regarding abortion and his priorities for the federal government revealed a shallow understanding of national issues important for a  candidate for the leadership of the free world.

Polls showed a precipitous slide from a Wisconsin position ahead of Ted Cruz to a double digit loss, with criticism directed at him from both the right and left of his own party and both Democratic candidates.

The Cruz strategy of forcing an open convention in which he may secure a majority of ballots subsequent to the first one appears to be a success, but the Texas Senator himself is so mistrusted and disliked that his own candidacy is just as likely to result in a November catastrophe as a contest headed by Trump.

It is Cruz, after all, who wants to resurrect World War II carpet bombing to eliminate ISIS and institute neighborhood screening of American Muslims.

Enter Ohio Governor John Kasich, who has previously been identified as “the only grownup in the Republican race.”

Trump has criticized  the Ohioan for staying the race despite his having won only one state, his own, earning a delegate count far below those accruing to Cruz and the billionaire business man.

The latter even went so far as to complain to the Republican National Committee that it should force Kasich from further contention on the ground that others had dropped out of their own volition, including Marco Rubio of Florida, who had accumulated a total greater than the Ohio Governor.

Although Trump is expected to do well on April 19th in his home State of New York and in subsequent contests on the 26th in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania, he would have to garner 58 per cent of the remaining delegates to be chosen.

With his history of winging it on issues and his tendency to put his own foot in his mouth, that is not likely to happen.

It is an open secret that the GOP old guard is already anticipating an “open” convention and is scrambling to line up the loyalty of delegates subsequent to the first vote.

Republican Party rules generally hold that a delegate tied to a candidate earned at a primary or caucus must be recorded in favor of that candidate on the first ballot, but is free thereafter to vote in any way he or she wishes.

In Florida, the delegates are actually bound for three ballots.  Trump beat Rubio handily in that primary, but after the third ballot, they are free to vote for whomever they think is most likely to carry the Presidency, the Senate, and maybe even the House of Representatives.

In addition to Wisconsin’s loss, the other anomaly occurring last week was the action taken by North Dakota’s Republican Party.

That State elected to send all of its 28 delegates uncommitted to any candidate – the only State acting so far to fail to commit to any of the original 17 candidates seeking the Republican nomination.

The result was to make all 28 delegates more immediately popular than any of Islam’s 72 virgins.

Put another way, Trump, Cruz and Kasich’s representatives are all dying to capture the unbound North Dakotans.


Advisory:  North Dakota is the native State of our late lamented, multi-talented LBKNews Staff Columnist, Tom Burgum.  Tom’s father was North Dakota’s Attorney General, and it was in that State that Tom became a lawyer, practiced law, and thereafter traveled to the Nation’s capital as an intern to Senator Burdick.

His experience as a government employee and successful lobbyist stemmed from his origins as a North Dakota native, leading to many of the opinions expressed in his columns.

Given his history, how sad it is that Tom is no longer with us to observe the bizarre behavior of the North Dakota Republican selection.

Or maybe he could have predicted it.

Those readers who are annoyed by the early prediction of the first contested National Republican Convention in 40 years, can send their objections to sreid@lbknews.com.

Remember, however, that the Constitution guarantees a free press, and, unlike our daily newspaper, this publication is absolutely free.

Dick Hershatter is a retired Connecticut lawyer and novelist who writes an occasional column of interest to Floridians.  He can be reached at Banyan502@AOL.com.

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3 Responses for “Trump will NOT be the party choice”

  1. Roland says:

    Mr. Trump may not be the most intellectual of presidents but the big question is if that is what the USA needs right now. We live in Europe most of the year. I can tell you first hand that America needs to act in line with the vision of Mr. Trump if it wishes to prevent that Amerika becomes the next Europe. Things have turned ugly here in the past year. Things can move fast and before you know it some of the basics that one holds as ‘fixed and firm’ are turned upside down. Even in the US vigilance is what we need right now. Not super intellectual candidates. Please keep the US the way it is and make it better and stronger. Don’t intellectualize a future that needs to be fought.

  2. Ross P. Alander says:

    I don’t like Mr.Mr. Trump at all (although he’s better than Sen Cruz, but of course that is a low bar) however if Mr. Trump gets the most popular votes, etc. shouldn’t he if we really believe that every vote counts,get the GOP nomination? How can he be denied that? The GOP treated Gov. Kasich very unprofessionally and like “crap”. They made this mess so live with it
    Ross former Republican

  3. ghostrider says:

    The great Statesmen are gone and those that remember them will soon be as well. We have morphed into something unforeseen. It could well be the Black Swan, or unforeseen event, that no one foresaw.
    The old guard wants status quo and spas.

    I’m sure Mr. Trump views his run for the flag as a prime business opportunity.

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